| Status | 已發表Published |
| Time-varying Models for Forecasting Summertime Daily Averaged PM10 Concentrations of Macau | |
Hoi, K. I. ; Yuen, K. V.; Mok, K. M.
| |
| 2008-11-01 | |
| Source Publication | Proceedings of the1st Nanshan District Academic Forum of PhD Candidates' from Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan in conjunction with the196th Tsinghua Forum for Doctoral Candidates
 |
| Pages | 1-10 |
| Abstract | In the present study, Kalman filter was applied to forecast the daily average of PM10 concentrations in Macau during the summer period of 2004. The Kalman filter was implemented on two different model classes, namely an empirical model and a semi-empirical model. It was found that there was a time-delay problem associated with the predictions of the empirical model, i.e., the predicted PM10 concentrations generally lagged behind the measured PM10 concentrations. The root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (r) for the empirical model are 27.20μg/m3 and 0.68, respectively. For the semi-empirical model, the time-delay problem was not substantial and the prediction accuracy was increased. The RMSE and the value of r for the semi-empirical model are 20.63μg/m3 and 0.81, respectively. The semi-empirical model outperforms the empirical model since the meteorological conditions which can influence the PM10 concentrations on the day of prediction are considered. Therefore, the process noise of the system is reduced. It is concluded that the Kalman filter was a promising tool in air quality prediction. However, caution should be made in the selection of the model classes. |
| Keyword | air quality prediction Kalman filter PM10 Macau |
| Language | 英語English |
| The Source to Article | PB_Publication |
| PUB ID | 48426 |
| Document Type | Conference paper |
| Collection | HENRY FOK PEARL JUBILEE COLLEGE |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Hoi, K. I.,Yuen, K. V.,Mok, K. M.. Time-varying Models for Forecasting Summertime Daily Averaged PM10 Concentrations of Macau[C], 2008, 1-10. |
| APA | Hoi, K. I.., Yuen, K. V.., & Mok, K. M. (2008). Time-varying Models for Forecasting Summertime Daily Averaged PM10 Concentrations of Macau. Proceedings of the1st Nanshan District Academic Forum of PhD Candidates' from Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan in conjunction with the196th Tsinghua Forum for Doctoral Candidates, 1-10. |
| Files in This Item: | There are no files associated with this item. | |||||
Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
Edit Comment