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U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles, Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency
Lai, R.N.; Van Order, R.
2017-04-01
Source PublicationReal Estate Economics
ABS Journal Level3
ISSN1540-6229
Pages259-300
Abstract

This paper studies U.S. house prices across 45 metropolitan areas from 1980 to 2012. It applies a version of the Gordon dividend discount model for long-run “fundamentals” and uses mean group and pooled mean group estimation to estimate long-run and short-run determinants of house prices. We find great similarity across cities in that the long-run house prices are largely explained by the same fundamentals; the long-run rent to price ratio is approximately 5% plus 0.75 times the real interest rate (which is on the order of 2%). However, adjustments to deviations from the fundamentals are slow, in the long-run, closing the gap at a rate of around 10% per year. We find sharp differences in short-run adjustments (momentum) away from the fundamentals across cities, and the differences are correlated with local supply elasticities (more momentum with lower elasticity). Analysis of residuals suggests strong cyclical deviations, which are mean-reverting.

KeywordHousing Bubbles Regime Shifts
DOI10.1111/1540-6229.12127
URLView the original
Language英語English
WOS IDWOS:000399662500002
The Source to ArticlePB_Publication
Scopus ID2-s2.0-84956879945
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lai, R.N.,Van Order, R.. U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles, Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency[J]. Real Estate Economics, 2017, 259-300.
APA Lai, R.N.., & Van Order, R. (2017). U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles, Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency. Real Estate Economics, 259-300.
MLA Lai, R.N.,et al."U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles, Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency".Real Estate Economics (2017):259-300.
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